下载文档第一篇：经济学人翻译
欧洲 法国税收 对富人的严厉打击
弗朗索瓦·奥朗德继续致力推行严厉的富人税
作为法国总统社会党候选人，弗朗索瓦·奥朗德承诺将高达75%富人税用于促进其所在左翼党派的名声，并摆脱来自共产党撑腰的竞争者的威胁。作为法国总统，奥朗德202_年预算的核心是税收改革。然而，12月29日，在税收政策实施前几天，宪法委员会驳回了这个一流的方案，认为此法案不符合宪法要求。
奥朗德试图对委员会的评论置若罔闻。新年晚会的电视讲话上，他说道，最高税率将会重新调整，但不会改变它的目标。我们将要求最富的人缴纳更多的税率。总理埃侯（Jean-Marc Ayrault）补充道，这个富有争议的75%所得税会重修修订，并提交议会，仅在一年后实施。
然而委员会的裁定暗示法国政府不是技术能力有限，就是政治上鬼鬼祟祟行动。委员会拒绝此方案违背了家庭间财务公平的原则，这个原则是法国税收准则的奠基石。75%的税收适用于年收入超过100万欧元（130万美元）的个人，而不是整个家庭收入。所以说如果一个家庭中夫妻2人的年收入都是900,000欧元，将不会受到该政策的影响，而如果一个家庭中个人的年收入刚好超过100万欧元将会受到影响，即使他的另一半没有收入。
这些技术专僚应该已经预测到了政策实施的这个障碍，但是一些评论员争议到75%的所得税有个更大的潜在的本质问题。委员会说道在裁定拒绝这个方案时，没有衡量其他违背税收的因素，比如税收可能有充公的因素。1789年的权力宣言中，税收必须根据按公民的收入比例征收。在最新的裁定时，关于其他税收问题，委员会认为说超额的税率侵犯了这个原则。
奥朗德从未装腔作势说75%的所得税会提高很多资金，但是称赞这是一个象征性的方案。这样的方案可能会帮助他赢得选举，但也会带来长久的问题。
委员会的裁定促使左翼党派的人高呼被欺骗了，他们担心富人会“出逃”，并且法国的香烟税、啤酒税以及其他基本物品的税收将会上涨。他们不需要担心。不管75%的富人税会不会实施，政府将向公司、资本收益、创造的财富、收入征收新的比例更高的税收。正是这些政策共同的影响促使法国影星杰拉尔·德帕迪约（Gerard Depardieu）离开法国，企业家们纷纷谴责政府是创造财富的梦魇。奥朗德75%富人税可能现在不会实施，但是这个象征性的危害已经造成了
英国 衡量种族多样化 伦敦效应
英国渐渐成为一个大都市
米尔顿凯恩斯（MILTON KEYNES）这个新兴小镇，离伦敦只有50米，拥有249,000人口，其美国风格的道路布局，明亮超级摩登的购物商场，用混泥土和玻璃纤维做的不吉利的牛群雕塑，在英国人中很有名。但是这些愉快，沉闷的郊区已不再是过去五颜六色的美景了。现在有许多商店与商场里的连锁商店竞争卖亚非特产。在一个平日阳光灿烂的下午，女人们身着土耳其长袍在宽阔的广场，低下通道聊天。米尔顿凯恩斯现在带有一些多彩的伦敦的活力。
11月11日，202_年英国和威尔士人口普查的最新数据公布（苏格兰，北爱尔兰的数据分开公布）。如广泛预测的一样，声称属于少数民族或者非英籍人的数量大幅增长。与上次202_年的人口普查相比，自认为“白种英国人”的数量从当时的88%下降到现在的 81%。同以前相比，有宗教信仰的英国人比以前少：早在10年前大约15%的人没有宗教信仰，而现在大约是1/3。
但是在这些大的趋势外，人口普查数据也揭露了一个更加微妙的模式。202_年，英国、威尔士中的少数人口中足足有45%住在伦敦。现在，他们都分散出去了。如下面地图所显示的，居住在伦敦的少数民族从像纽汉、陶尔哈姆莱茨区，这些内陆城市分散出来，搬到比如巴金区、达格南这些偏远的地方。同时，英国其他的地方渐渐开始更像伦敦：白人变少了，人种越来越多元化。
202_年，英国大约80%的非洲黑人住在伦敦，而现在仅有58%。在其它主要的种族中，也出现了类似的减少，也许更少，即使有些被认为没有分散的很多种族，比如孟加拉国的人。总之，伦敦外的少数民族人口增长了90%，而伦敦的只稍微增加了63%。
伦敦南部一个富裕的小镇肯尼（Kent），尽管一开始起步低，但202_年来少数民族的人口增长了115%。而伦敦北部一个乡下郊区小镇赫特福德郡（Hertfordshire），少数人口数量翻了一番。很多人都搬到了一些比如肯尼的阿什福德，赫特福德郡的韦林花园城。这些城镇有方正型的房子，随意的道路布局，许多但不特别分部的绿化植物和人字铺砖。当地的政策围绕着阻碍绿地发展的项目。不难理解为什么这些少数民族搬到这些小镇。这里犯罪少，学校特别棒。房价比伦敦低得多，但快捷的交通方式使从伦敦到这些小镇很方便。主要的新移民是来自伦敦的非洲黑人，印第安人，还有定居在全国各地的波兰人（202_年，英国允许欧盟新的成员国居民在这工作）。类似的人口迁徙潮在哪里都可以看到。坐落在伯明翰南部边缘的一个富裕的郊区小镇索利哈尔（Solihull），自202_年来就有印第安人和巴基斯坦人涌入。
飞往郊区的航班也改变了伦敦内部格局。伦敦南部自治区朗伯斯区（Lambeth）长期以来一直被认为是伦敦加勒比人的第一所在地，1948年帝国疾风号的乘客大部分在这定居。但自从202_年加勒比黑人迁徙出去，而非洲人在这落根。商店里陈列着便宜的钱币兑换广告，可以打到加纳和尼日利亚的公共电话。尽管在全国自称“信仰基督教”的人大幅度下降，但非洲人的涌入部分上解释了为什么，朗伯斯区和伦敦其它的自治州努力提高自身的忠实程度。
过去的10年内总移民量飞速上升，可能是导致移民变得如此有争议的原因之一。在许多郊区地方移民者涌入，白种英国人第一次看到这么多的外国人。现有居民通常反感新来者，他们会抢夺学校名额，医生的预约，公共住房。政客们都纷纷呼吁减少移民。12月12日，保守党内阁大臣特雷莎·梅（Theresa May）谴责“不受控制的、大量的移民”，这取代了英国人的工作，迫使他们依赖救济金生活，并压抑了低收入者的薪水。
但是其它证据表明大部分移民人及其子女有效的聚集在一起。自称是混合种族的人数几乎翻了一番，从202_年的661,000增长到现在的120万。智囊团英国未来的秘书长德·卡特瓦拉（Sunder Katwala）认为，英国的跨种族结婚的夫妻比世界上任何地方都多，包括美国。尽管种族多样性不断上升，但91%的人在填写人口普查表时声称多少有些英国国籍，把自己叫做英国人，威尔士人，苏格兰人，北爱尔兰人，或者真正地英国人，有时加上民族。
据智囊团牛津移民观察会称，与其它城市相比，伦敦人不喜欢移民者的情绪较弱，即使是在白种的英国伦敦居民中。因为几个世纪以来不同种族的人拥挤地生活在一起。伦敦市长约翰逊·鲍里斯（Boris Johnson）赞美了开放边界的好处。与市长建议相反的是，多样化增长的需要不意味着凝聚力，冲突的缺失。真正地，如果英国的其它城市效仿伦敦的模式，英国也许最终会减少凝聚力和冲突。
第二篇：经济学人
Wynne Godley
Wynne Godley, British economist, died on May 13th, aged 83
May 27th 202_ | From The Economist print edition
A CERTAIN ambiguity marked Wynne Godley.Was he at heart an aesthete, happiest making music in beautiful buildings among works of art? Or was he more naturally one of the sophisters, economists and calculators whose rise marked, for Edmund Burke, the passing of the age of chivalry? Was he by temperament a dissenter? Or just a typical scion of the British upper classes, an establishment man who played at being a rebel? Was he a determined pessimist, who took some pleasure in his reputation as the Cassandra of the Fens? Or a convivial, witty friend, who entertained with style and had a taste for gambling? Was he a shy violet, trembling before an audience? Or a controversialist who was hardly publicity-averse?
If the answer to each of these questions is at least partly yes, that may mean no more than that Mr Godley was a man of several talents, many interests and an intelligence to make good use of them.His first love was certainly music, for when he left Oxford, where he read politics, philosophy and economics, he went to the Paris Conservatoire and became a professional oboist.Performing in public, though, filled him with terror, which led him to give up his job as principal oboe in the BBC Welsh Orchestra.He turned to economics instead.That, anyway, became his profession.But his love of music never left him, and art remained a part of his life to the end, not least through his marriage to Kitty, the daughter of Sir Jacob Epstein.And though Mr Godley’s good looks and elongated figure might seem to have been tailor-made for El Greco, El Greco being unavailable, it was Epstein who took him as the model for a huge bronze statue of St Michael that hangs on the outside of Coventry Cathedral, with the devil vanquished at his feet.反正经济学成了戈德利的职业。但他对音乐的韦恩•戈德利 英国经济学家韦恩•戈德利于五月十三日辞世，终年83岁 源自《经济学人》印刷版，202_年5月27日 韦恩•戈利这个人的特点带有几分模棱两可。从本质上讲他是不是一个唯美主义者，置身于华美的厅堂上，徜徉于艺术珍品之中，摆弄音乐，陶醉无比？还是说，以天生秉性而言，他更应当被看成是一个辩论大师、经济学家又兼计算高手，当初此等人物的出现曾被埃德蒙•伯克认为标志了骑士时代的终结？他是不是一个从性格上就爱拂逆众见的异议者呢？还是说，他仍未脱英国上流阶级子弟之典型，以体制中人的身份，玩几把反叛的游戏？他真是一个坚定不移的悲观论者并且能从“芬斯地区的悲观预言师”这样的名头上得几分快乐吗？还是说，这位朋友爱交游喜风趣，招待客人讲究排场，还有赌博的雅兴？他是个在听众面前会紧张到发抖的“羞答答的紫罗兰”呢？还是一个好辩的主儿，动起嘴来几不忌惮抛头露面？如果对上述每一个问题的回答至少有一部分是“是”，则也许只是意味着——戈德利是一位有几份天资、多种爱好的男人，是一位有智慧对种种爱好善加利用的男人。他第一爱好无疑是音乐，因为当他离开他攻读政治、哲学和经济学的牛津大学后，他去了巴黎音乐学院，并成为一个专业的双簧管吹奏者。可是，由于他在公众场所表演充满紧张，致使他放弃了在英国BBC广播公司威尔士乐团首席双簧管演奏员的工作。他转向了经济学领域热爱始终不离不弃，及至人生终点，艺术仍然是他生活的一部分，尤其贯穿于他与爱泼斯坦（1880-1959, 生于美国的英国雕刻家——译者注)爵士之女基蒂的婚姻生活中。此外，尽管戈德利英俊的外貌和高高的身材似乎是为埃尔•格雷考（十七世纪西班牙画家、雕塑家——译者注）量身定做的模特儿，但格雷考无福消受。把戈德利作为圣迈克尔巨型青铜塑像模特儿的是爱泼斯坦，这尊塑像立于考文垂大教堂外面，其脚下是被征服的魔鬼。
In Keynes’s footsteps, up to a point
The devilish intricacies of economics Mr Godley seemed to overwhelm just as effortlessly.After a spell in business and a few years at the Treasury, he was enticed to King’s College, Cambridge, which 61 years earlier another economist-aesthete, John Maynard Keynes, had joined as a lecturer, writing(with his mother’s help)a letter of resignation from the civil service to his boss, a Sir Arthur Godley.This man was to become the first Lord Kilbracken and
Mr Godley became best known for his outspoken criticisms of Conservative economic policies.In the 1970s he took the view, which he recognised as dissenting, that international trade should be, as he put it, “in some sense, managed” through import controls, adding unpersuasively that this was not really protectionism, since he did not want to reduce imports, merely the propensity to import;and protection should be “as minimally selective as possible”.More creditably, he correctly predicted that the boom generated by the Conservative government under Ted Heath in the 1970s would end in tears.He was also proved largely right in
These doleful prophecies, coupled with his very public loathing of monetarism, earned him no friends in government and the grant for his forecasting group at Cambridge was abruptly stopped in 1982.But he was hardly an outcast.Though not properly trained as an economist, he had proved himself as a macroeconomic modeller, and had been made a university professor of applied economics.He had also become a director of the Royal Opera House.By 1992 he was back in favour at the Treasury, joining the panel of independent On the face of it, this was not a turbulent life.Mr Godley said he had a lonely childhood, involving a violent maiden aunt and the “chamber of horrors of a British prep school”.Later, in his 30s, he lived life “through an artificial self” in “a state of dissociation”, which drove him into the clutches of a fiendish psychoanalyst.This in turn blighted his middle years.在某种程度上，戈德利是追随凯恩斯的足迹 eventually grandfather of Wynne.戈德利先生对于如魔幻般错综复杂的经济学，应对起来似乎毫不费力。在商界和财政部干了一些年头后，他神往起61年前另一个审美学家、经济学家约翰•梅纳德•凯恩斯（注1）曾经就读的剑桥国王学院来，他在向其老板老板阿瑟•戈德利男爵写（在其母亲的帮助下）了一封文员辞职信后，成为了该学院的一名讲师。那位男爵就是基尔布拉肯勋爵一世并最终成为韦恩•戈德利的祖父。foreseeing the severity of the recession that came later under Margaret Thatcher.戈德利因直言不讳地批评保守党的经济政策而变得愈加有名。在上世纪70年代，他发表观点（他意识到此观点不受欢迎）：国际贸易应该像他所指出的那样是通过进口管制实现的“某种意义上的管理”，他还缺乏说服力地补充这确实不是贸易保护主义，因为他并不主张减少进口，只是减少进口倾向；应当“尽可能最少地选择”贸易保护措施。更值得称道的是，他正确地预言到了上世纪七十年代希思治下的保守党政府激发的繁荣，将以泪雨告终。对后来撒切尔夫人时期严重经济衰退的预计，也被证明是大体上正确的。
forecasters known as the “six wise men”.上述令人沮丧的预测，连同他对货币主义的公开反感，使得戈德利在政府没有朋友，其剑桥预判小组的政府拨款也于1982年突然停止了。不过，戈德利不大可能成为被抛弃的人。尽管他没有像经济学家那样接受正规高等教育，但他却证明自己是一位宏观经济学缔造者，而且还是一位大学应用经济学教授。他也是皇家歌剧院的懂事。1992年，戈德利在一片赞赏中回到财政部，参加被称作“六智囊”的独立预测员小组。
单从表面上看，上述这一切算不上是混沌难驭的人生经历。戈德利说过，他有一个陷于粗暴未婚姑妈和“英国预科学校恐怖屋”之难的孤独童年。后来，在他30多岁期间，他过着“分裂状态”下“自我十足虚假”的生活，这种生活驱使他成为刁钻心理分析学家的掌中物。这种生活也相应地折磨着他的中年。
His background, though it might misleadingly be called privileged, was mixed up.The first Lord Kilbracken had been a protégé of a Liberal prime minister, Gladstone, but was a Conservative;and the second, Wynne’s father Hugh, also a Tory, had been madly in love with Violet Asquith, the daughter of another Liberal prime minister.Hugh separated from Wynne’s mother about the time he was born, and was impotent, anti-Semitic and alcoholic.Wynne’s mother paraded naked in front of him and would tell him, as a child, of the intense pleasure she got from sexual intercourse.But he reached the age of 17 not knowing that women had vaginas.He was supremely happy at Oxford, where his tutor was Isaiah Berlin, to whom he said he owed all his higher education.But, he wrote, “Nora *his stepmother] shot herself in the head with a shotgun;my father, his entire fortune squandered, died alone in a hospital where the nurses were unkind to him;my half-sister was committed to a high-security mental institution at Epsom;my mother had a bad stroke and lived out her last six years hemiplegic and helpless, her mind altered.She told her nurses that they were ‘lower-class scum’ and complained that I
Against a background like this, a little waywardness in the world of macroeconomics seems entirely forgivable.Whopper to go
Will Burger King be gobbled up by private equity?
SHARES in Burger King(BK)soared on
September 1st on reports that the fast-food company was talking to several private-equity firms interested in buying it.How much beef was behind these stories was unclear.But lately the company famous for the slogan “Have It Your Way” has certainly not been having it its own way.There may be arguments about whether BK or McDonald’s serves the best fries, but there is no doubt which is more popular with stockmarket虽然戈德利•韦恩的出生背景会让人误以为是特权阶层，但其实是模糊不清的。他的祖父基尔布拉肯一世虽曾是自由党首相格莱斯顿的门生，却是个保守派；而他的父亲基尔布拉肯二世休•戈德利也是一名保守党成员，疯狂爱上了另一位自由党首相的女儿维尔莉特•阿斯奎思。休•戈德利大约在韦恩出生后就与韦恩的母亲分居，是一个性欲低下者、反犹太者、嗜酒者。当韦恩还是一个孩子的时候，他妈妈在他面前展示她的裸体，并会告诉他她从性爱中获得的强烈快感。可是，成长至17岁的戈德利•韦恩先生尚不知女性是有阴道的。
was ‘marrying the daughter of a New York yid’.”在牛津大学，韦恩快乐无比，他的牛津大学导师是赛亚•伯林，他曾说过他所受的全部的高等教育都是从柏林那儿得来的。不过，他著述称：“继母诺拉用猎枪结束了自己的生命；我父亲花光家财，在一家受尽护士冷眼的医院里孤独离世；我同父异母的妹妹被送进埃普索姆一家管理严格的精神病院；我母亲严重中风，在偏瘫无助中度过生命的最后六年，并改变了观点。她告诉护士：‘他们是低等的贱人’，还抱怨我‘娶了犹太裔纽约人的女儿’”。
在这样的家庭背景下，在宏观经济学界中，戈德利•韦恩的些许任性似乎是完全可以得到宽恕的。至尊汉堡，打包带走
汉堡王是否会被私人股本吞并？
investors: the maker of the Big Mac has supersized its lead in the past two years.有报道披露，快餐企业汉堡王（BK）正在与数个有收购意向的私人股本接洽，9月1日，汉堡王的股值随之飙升。这些报道究竟有多少真材实料不得而知。汉堡王的著名口号是“我选我味”，但如今显然它身不由己，心中五味杂陈。汉堡王和麦当劳哪家薯条最好吃，食客们一直争论不休，但股票投资人更喜欢哪家股票，却一目了然：过去两年里，巨无霸麦当劳一直在扩大
自己的优势。
Recession has favoured McDonald’s over BK, whose share price has fallen by half since the economy was flame-grilled in the summer of 202_.Shares in McDonald’s have risen, reaching an all-time high in August.Same-store sales at BK
Why has McDonald’s been eating BK’s lunch? Among other things, BK has always had a higher proportion of sales to young men, who have been hit especially hard by the recession.McDonald’s, by contrast, has for several years wooed women and older people with relatively healthy salads and drinkable coffee.BK has struggled to follow suit.At the same time, it has had to contend with angry shareholders, as the rising cost of beef and other ingredients has clobbered its profits.BK may also have cannibalised its existing sales by offering BK is used to changes in ownership.It went from being part of Pillsbury, a food company, to Grand Metropolitan, a British conglomerate, then to Diageo, a drinks giant.In 202_ it was sold to a group of private-equity investors: TPG, Bain Capital and Goldman Sachs.They did a fair job, improving sales with better marketing.They also helped turn around the most troubled of the franchisees who operate most BK restaurants.In 202_ BK floated its shares again.Its bosses may hope that going private once more will protect them from short-term stockmarket pressures If BK does go private, it may be part of a trend in the private-equity industry—now that some of the bigger firms have rediscovered their appetite for deals—of gobbling up the companies they had taken public during the bubble years but which are now trading cheaply.TPG, Bain Capital and Goldman Sachs still own a sizeable stake in BK, despite listing it on the New York Stock Exchange in 202_.However, it seems that other private-equity firms are interested in buying it.If that happens, no doubt BK servers will appreciate the irony: the act of passing a company from one private-equity firm to another is known in the
have fallen for five successive quarters.金融危机却更青睐汉堡王，自202_年经济低迷以来，其股票价格跌至原来的一半。而麦当劳的股票不跌反涨，在8月又创下了历史新高。汉堡王的同店销售额连续五个季度下跌。value meals that were a bit too irresistible.为何麦当劳在与汉堡王的竞争中占得先机？别的不谈，汉堡王的顾客更多的是年轻人，而年轻人受金融危机打击尤其严重。相对地，麦当劳近年来一直以相对健康的沙拉和可口的咖啡，吸引女性和中老年人。汉堡王一直难以模仿。与此同时，随着牛肉等原材料的成本上涨，利润一跌再跌，汉堡王又不得不去对付那些愤怒的股东。汉堡王的套餐太过诱人，可能也影响了其他产品的销量。
while they ponder how to beat McDonald’s.汉堡王此前多次易主，已经习以为常了。它曾是皮尔斯百利食品公司的一部分，后转入英国大都会集团，继而转投饮品巨头帝亚吉欧。202_年又被转手卖给一批私人股本投资者：德克萨斯太平洋集团（TPG），贝恩资本和高盛。他们经营良好，利用优秀市场策略增加了销售。大部分汉堡王餐厅的运营商当时经营不善，他们还助其扭亏为盈。202_年汉堡王再度上市。其老板可能希望再度私有化以规避短期股市压力，为其争取时间定策击败麦当劳。
business as “flipping”.私人股本行业——如今一些大公司重新对收购有了兴趣——吞并那些他们在经济泡沫时代卖掉，现在十分廉价的公司，俨然已成一股大潮，如果汉堡王真的私有化，就将融入这股大潮之中。德克萨斯太平洋集团（TPG），贝恩资本和高盛虽然202_年在纽约证券交易所已经兜售了汉堡王，但他们仍握有可观的股份。然而，其他私人股本公司似乎也有意收购。要是真被他们收购，无疑汉堡王的服务生都能领会其中的讽刺：在私人股本公司中被倒卖，在做汉堡这行叫“翻面”。
Another chance for Alfa
Alfa Romeo’s cars have not always lived up to its stellar brand.That is changing
IN 1995 Alfa Romeo ignominiously pulled out of America, having managed to sell only 400 cars there that year.Yet this month the sporting Italian marque, which is celebrating its centenary, was the star of the annual Pebble Beach Concours d’Elegance in California, a show for classic and concept cars.Alfa brought over seven cars from its museum in Milan, but none of its current offerings.It is testimony to the enduring power of a brand that has a wonderful history but which for many years has over-promised and under-delivered.Last year even Sergio Marchionne, the boss of Fiat, which owns Alfa, seemed to be running out of patience.Mr Marchionne had set Alfa a target to reach sales of 300,000 cars a year by 202_, but in 202_ it sold barely 100,000.In December he ordered a review of Alfa’s operations, which according to Max Warburton of Bernstein Research were losing up to $575m a year.The choice was to stem the losses by freezing new product investment after the launch this summer of the Giulietta hatchback, or to make a final attempt to restore Alfa’s fortunes, in part by taking advantage of Fiat’s control of Chrysler to re-establish Alfa in America.There were even rumours that Mr Marchionne might sell Alfa to Volkswagen, the industry’s most insatiable collector of brands.There is little doubt that Ferdinand Piëch, VW’s chairman, covets it.This month Car magazine revealed that a small project team at VW’s design studio in Potsdam had been ordered to create a phantom Alfa line-up.The theory is that Mr Piëch
罗密欧的救赎
作为豪华名牌，阿尔法·罗密欧一直很水。如今这正在改变。
There are signs, however, that this may be changing.1995年，阿尔法·罗密欧在美国只卖出了400辆车，当年便耻辱地撤出了美国。然而本月，在其百年大庆之际，在加州的Pebble Beach Concours d’Elegance古董车和概念车展会上，这个意大利跑车品牌大放异彩。阿尔法公司从其米兰的博物馆带来了七款车，但没有一款是正在销售的。这是历史悠久的老牌汽车实力的证明，虽然多年来每每呼之欲出，却总是令人失望。但是，它隐然已经有了复兴的迹象。
就在去年，甚至阿尔法的母公司菲亚特的老板，塞尔吉奥·马尔奇奥尼似乎都对它失去了耐心。马尔奇奥尼为阿尔法公司设定了202_年以前年销售30万辆的目标，但202_年它只卖出区区10万辆。12月他让伯恩斯坦研究公司对阿尔法公司的运营进行调查，其研究员马克思·沃伯顿表示，阿尔法年损失高达5.75亿美元。
would like to substitute Alfa for VW’s less charismatic Seat brand.有两种选择，一是在今年夏天发布Giulietta掀背车后，不再投资新产品以制止损失，二是孤注一掷，重塑阿尔法的辉煌，这就需要利用菲亚特控制的克莱斯勒，重新打入美国市场。甚至有传言说，马尔奇奥尼有意将阿尔法卖给大众汽车，后者是业内欲壑难填的收购狂。无疑，大众主席费迪南·皮耶觊觎阿尔法。本月的《汽车》杂志爆料，位于波茨坦的大众设计工作室里，一个项目小队被要求做出一套虚拟的阿尔法阵容。据推测，皮耶想用阿尔法替换大众旗下没什么吸引力的西亚特品牌。
Although Mr Marchionne did not reveal the full extent of his plans for Alfa(and the rest of the Fiat Group)until April, a straw in the wind was the appointment in January of Harald Wester, a German engineer, to run the unit.Mr Wester was already the boss of two other zippy Fiat brands, Abarth and Maserati, and was the group’s chief technical officer.One of Mr Marchionne’s best managers, Mr Wester was not being given the job to slim Alfa down or to Far from it.Alfa’s previous record year was in 202_, when it produced 213,000 cars, but the ambitious target set for Mr Wester is to sell half a million Alfas a year by 202_.Of these, 85,000 a year are expected to be in America, where Alfa will return by 202_.Mr Wester says that there are now “the right conditions, the right products and the right synergies to get there”.For his part, Mr Marchionne insists that he has “a strong and unequivocal commitment to the development of Alfa Romeo”
Next year, Alfa will launch the Giulia, a replacement for the handsome but not quite good enough 159 saloon, that will lead the charge in America.It will quickly follow it with a small crossover and a larger SUV.Chrysler will provide both a manufacturing base in America and a Mr Wester is well aware that for all the affection Alfa still retains among car enthusiasts the plan will flop if the products are wrong.The signs are encouraging.Alfa’s MiTo, which competes against BMW’s Mini, has sold quite well since its launch last year.But the specialist magazines have given it a mixed reception, praising its styling and high-tech engines while criticising early cars for their choppy ride.The new Giulietta, a rival to Ford’s Focus and VW’s Golf that went on sale in Europe in May, is being hailed as not merely the most convincing With Fiat due to demerge its car and industrial businesses in December, the focus on Alfa will be all the more intense, especially with the Fiat brand beating expectations(mainly thanks to strong sales of light commercial vehicles in Europe and continued success in Brazil).Even Chrysler is responding to Mr Marchionne’s medicine and is in
flog it to VW.尽管马尔奇奥尼直到4月才把对阿尔法（以及菲亚特集团的其他品牌）的计划和盘托出，但早在1月从任命德国工程师哈拉尔德·韦斯特尔执掌这个部门，就已经可以窥斑见豹了。韦斯特尔已经是菲亚特其他两个优秀品牌，阿巴特和玛莎拉蒂的主管，而且是集团的首席技术官。韦斯特尔是马尔奇奥尼最优秀的经理人之一，若是要削减阿尔法经费或者卖给大众，根本不劳他出马。
and that he is “determined to transform it into a full premium brand”.恰恰相反。阿尔法的销售记录是在202_年创下的，当年生产销售了21.3万辆车，但野心勃勃的韦斯特尔设下了202_年前年销售50万辆的目标。其中，预计有8.5万辆在美国销售，阿尔法将在202_年以前重回美国。韦斯特尔说，如今“回美国是天时，地利，人和”。至于马尔奇奥尼，他坚持说他“坚定不移地致力于阿尔法·罗密欧的发展”并且“决心使它跻身豪华车品牌的行列”。
powerful distribution network.明年，阿尔法将推出Giulia，取代华而不实的159中型轿车，成为美国市场的主力。继而将推出一款酷越（Crossover）车型和一款大型SUV。克莱斯勒既是大规模生产基地，也是强有力的销售网络。
mainstream Alfa for a long time, but one of the best cars in a fiercely competitive class.韦斯特尔清楚地知道，虽然阿尔法仍然深受车迷厚爱，但产品上的失误仍会使其一败涂地。目前势头良好。在宝马Mini的竞争下，阿尔法的MiTo自去年发布以来仍有不俗的销量。但专业杂志对它毁誉参半，赞誉其设计和高科技引擎的同时，批评其早期产品行驶颠簸。与福特福克斯和大众高尔夫同一车型的新款Giulietta去年5月在欧洲销售，不仅长期被誉为令人信服的阿尔法主流产品，还被评为这个竞争激烈的车型中的佼佼者。much better financial shape than seemed possible a year ago.菲亚特将在12月将其汽车和工业产业分成子公司，届时，销量超越预期的阿尔法（主要归功于轻型商用车在欧洲的强势，以及在巴西的经久不衰）将更加引人瞩目。在马尔奇奥尼的改革下，就连克莱斯勒都有所起色，它如今的经济状况在去年看来简直不可想象。
The complacency and insularity that condemned too many Alfas of the past 25 years to mediocrity appears to have been blown away;and such is the lingering glamour of the Alfa Romeo name that even rivals wish it well.But Mr Wester has been given a mountain to climb and he has only just left base camp.Should he fail, there is every chance that Mr Piëch will be there to pick up the pieces.25年来，令阿尔法一蹶不振的那份夜郎自大，如今已经无迹可寻；阿尔法·罗密欧这个浪漫的名字余威犹在，连它的对手也希望它能好起来。但欲图极顶的韦斯特尔才刚刚从大本营出发。如果他失败了，守株待兔的皮耶一定会乐于出手的。
第三篇：202_年经济学人
Reassuringly unfriendly
令人放心地不友善
Today is more like the 1980s than the 1990s in another way, too: the hostility of the buyers.The dotcom era was nauseatingly cosy, with only 4% of deals struck in 202_ deemed hostile or unsolicited.This year the level is hovering close to 20%.One reason for this is the growing influence of shareholders, notably hedge funds, whose patience is short.Given this new breed of owner-agitator, managers of targeted firms are less likely to “dig trenches and stay there,” says Victor Lewkow, a merger lawyer with Cleary Gottlieb.Pension funds and other once-staid institutional shareholders are also becoming more willing to entertain offers as they strive to increase returns.从另一方面，即：买家的敌对程度，来说，今天更像上世纪的80年代，而不是90年代。达康时代平稳发展得让人感觉提不起精神，在202_年所进行的交易中仅有4%被认为是恶意交易或无约束力交易。而在今年，这个百分比快挺进到20%。原因之一是，股东的影响力在不断增加，尤其是对冲基金的影响力，他们的耐心一向不多。面对这种新出现的所有人型煽动者，目标公司的经理不再可能“挖个战壕，躲在那里，” 美国佳利律师事务所的兼并律师维克多·卢科（音译，Victor Lewkow）说道。随着养老金基金和其他以前沉稳的机构股东在努力增加收益，他们也都变得更加愿意接受报价。
As in the 1980s antitrust authorities seem to have become more relaxed than they were in the 1990s, especially in America.Mr Lewkow thinks some companies are rushing to do attractive but “dicier” deals(from an antitrust standpoint)in the hope of getting them approved before the change of president, and a possible tightening of enforcement policies.Even so, the likes of Alcoa and Thomson face daunting obstacles.Credit Suisse puts the chances of success for the Reuters takeover at 60%.和在80年代一样，今天反垄断当局的态度似乎要比他们在90年代的时候更加宽松，尤其是在美国。卢科认为，一些公司急着做成有吸引力但风险更大的交易（站在反垄断的立场上），希望在总统换任之前把交易敲定，并且加紧政策的执行。虽然如此，诸如美铝亚洲和汤姆森集团等其它收购企业仍要面对难以克服的障碍。瑞士信贷认为，收购路透集团的成功性仅有60%。
But getting a deal past the antitrust police is only half the battle.Research shows that mergers often fail to bring expected benefits: look no further than the break-up of DaimlerChrysler after nine unhappy years.M&A advisers dispute this, pointing to studies that show buyers outperform the market, at least in the year after the deal.But the danger of overpaying clearly increases as competition for transactions heats up and stockmarkets scale new heights.There are signs that this is happening: the average premium being paid, when measured as a percentage of the target's cash flow, is higher that at any time since the bursting of the last bubble.但是，让交易通过反垄断当局的审查只是斗争的一半。研究显示，兼并通常不能带来期望的利益：看看戴姆勒-克莱斯勒在九年不高兴日子后的分手就清楚了。并购方面的顾问却不同意此观点，他们指出，有研究表明买家的表现至少在交易后的一年时间里是要胜过市场的。然而，随着交易竞争愈演愈烈和股市频繁创造新高，过多支付的危险无疑也在增长。有迹象显示，这一切正在发生：若将现在所支付的一般溢价作为目标公司现金流转中的百分比来计量，它是在从最后一个泡沫破碎到今天的这段时间里最高的。
Moreover, there are fears that mergers will be used to paper over cracks.Profit growth for companies in the S&P 500 will fall to 7% this year after several years of double-digit expansion, reckons Thomson Financial.Firms may join forces to hide their own deteriorating performance.而且，有人担心兼并会被用作掩盖问题的手段。汤姆森金融公司认为，在几年的两位数增长之后，标准普尔500指数公司的利润增长率会在今年降低到7%。公司也许会联合起来用兼并的方法来掩瞒它们日趋恶化的市场表现。
That should worry shareholders.For those who advise on deals, however, the bigger concern is what might bring the party to an abrupt end.A sharp economic slowdown in America? The collapse of a giant buy-out? A credit crunch with no clear trigger? In private, most bankers say it cannot go on for much longer.In public, they will just keep clinking their glasses.这应该会使股东担心。但对于那些交易顾问来说，更值得关注的事情是，什么会使这个狂欢戛然而止。会是美国经济发展的突然减速？会是一次巨型收购的失败？还会是在无明显诱因下发生的信用崩溃？在私底下，大部分的银行家表示，兼并热不可能持续太长。然而，在公众场合，他们仅会继续互相碰着酒杯。
Lost in translation 在折算中迷失
If China sharply revalued the yuan, as American politicians are demanding, it could actually hurt the United States and help China
如果中国如美国政客们苛求的那样对急剧升值人民币，事实上中国会得到好处，美国则会受到创伤。
CHINA is being cast as the villain once again.By holding its exchange rate artificially low, it is stealing jobs and causing the United States to run a huge trade deficit.Beijing must therefore be forced to revalue the yuan.These are the arguments behind an increasingly protectionist mood in Washington.Yet they are largely flawed.A stronger Chinese currency would not much reduce America's trade deficit.Indeed, the irony is that China, not America, has more to gain from setting the yuan free.Without a more flexible exchange rate, there is a growing risk that China's sizzling economy will boil over.中国正再次扮演反派人物。通过人为保持低汇率,它窃取就业机会，并且致使美国承担了巨额贸易逆差。因此，北京必须被迫升值人民币。这些就是华盛顿越来越多的贸易保护主义情绪背后的论调。然而他们大错特错了。更加坚挺的人民币对于减少美国贸易赤字收效甚微。实际上，具有讽刺意味的是，中国（而不是美国）从放开人民币管制当中获益更多。如果没有更加灵活的汇率，滋滋响的中国经济会面临沸腾的危险。
Although by themselves these actions are trivial, together they point to an increasing appetite for tougher action against China.The Bush administration is under increasing pressure, particularly from Congress.尽管就自身来讲这都是一些小动作，但是联合起来就表明了对于采取更强硬措施反对中国的越来越大的胃口。布什政府顶着（特别是来自国会的）越来越多的压力。
Congressmen complain that the so-called China-US Strategic Economic Dialogue(a series of high-level talks between the two countries launched last year by Hank Paulson, the treasury secretary)has so far failed to produce results.The recent deterioration in trade relations does not bode well for the next meeting, which begins on May 22nd.Many commentators now reckon that Congress will inevitably pass some kind of China-bashing legislation later this year.A sharp economic slowdown in America as a result of the collapsing housing market would make this even more likely.国会议员们抱怨，所谓中美战略经济对话（财政部长汉克.鲍尔森去年创立的两国间的一系列高层对话）迄今为止没有发挥作用近来的贸易摩擦可不是五月二十二日开始的下一次会议的吉兆。现在许多评论员预计国会将在今年晚些时候通过某种痛击中国的法案。房地产市场的崩溃导致的美国经济的急速衰退使其更加可能发生。
The biggest risk comes from measures linked to China's supposed exchange-rate misalignment.The infamous Schumer-Graham bill, which proposed a 27.5% tariff on all Chinese goods to offset the yuan's alleged undervaluation, was withdrawn last year.But the two senators behind it are working with others on a new WTO-compatible version that could soon appear.Although the new bill is unlikely to include across-the-board tariffs, it could have sharp teeth.最大的风险来自测量假定的中国汇率失调的标准。声名狼藉的舒默-格雷厄姆法案——建议对所有中国商品征收27.5%关税以抵消人民币所谓的低估——在去年被撤销。而作为始作俑者的两名参议员以及其他人正在为即将浮出水面的世贸组织的匹配版本而辛勤工作。尽管新法案不太可能包含全面关税,但还是会有尖牙利齿。
Meanwhile, the target of all this hostility looms ever larger: China's trade surplus with America increased to $233 billion last year, accounting for almost 30% of America's total deficit.China's total current-account surplus reached an estimated $250 billion, or 9% of GDP, up from only 1% in 202_.Worse still, in the first four months of 202_, its trade surplus jumped by 88% compared with the same period in 202_.同时,所有敌对行动的对象之大前所未有：去年中国对美国的贸易顺差增加到2330亿美元，几乎占美国全部贸易逆差的30%。中国的经常项目[3]帐户盈余总额估计达到2500亿美元，或者国内生产总值的9%，而202_年这一比例仅为1%。更糟的是,202_年前四个月，其贸易顺差与202_年同期相比跃升了88%。
The making of myths 谬论的产生
China officially abandoned its decade-long policy of pegging the yuan to the dollar in July 202_.Since then it has risen by only 8% against the greenback.Because the dollar itself has weakened, the yuan's trade-weighted exchange rate has barely budged.In real trade-weighted terms it is about 10% cheaper than at the dollar's peak in 202_.As a result, it is not just the usual protectionist suspects that demand action, but many mainstream American economists are now calling on China to revalue by 20% or more.Yet the standard arguments for a revaluation are based partly on a series of myths.202_年7月，中国正式放弃实行十年之久的人民币盯住美元政策。从那以后，人民币对美钞已经升值8%。因为美元自身的疲软，人民币的贸易加权汇率[4]几乎没有变动。在实际贸易加权范围内，它比美元出现最高值的202_年还要便宜10%。结果,不仅仅是贸易保护主义者嫌疑犯请求采取措施，现在就连美国主流经济学家也呼吁人民币升值20%或者更多。然而关于升值的标准论调部分地基于种种谬论。
The first myth is that there is overwhelming evidence that the yuan is grossly undervalued.China's large bilateral trade surplus with America proves nothing.It largely reflects Asia's changing supply chain.Much of what America buys from China today once came from Japan, South Korea and Taiwan.China now imports components from these countries, assembles them and exports the finished goods to America.Knock out these and America's bilateral deficit with China shrinks by more than half.Even so, China's overall current-account surplus is also huge.The surge in its foreign-exchange reserves, to over $1.2 trillion, also suggests that the yuan is undervalued: without those massive purchases of dollars, the currency would have risen.谬论一：是人民币币值被严重低估铁证如山。中国对美国的巨额双边贸易顺差证明不了什么。这基本上反映了亚洲供应链的变化。今天美国从中国购买的商品从前大部分来自日本,韩国和台湾。现在中国从这些国家和地区进口零部件，组装为成品后出口给美国。排除掉这些因素之后，美国对中国的贸易逆差将缩水一大半。虽然如此，中国的经常项目帐户盈余总额还是庞大的。超过一万二千亿美元的外汇储备的涌入，也暗示着人民币被低估了；如果没有如此巨额的美元买进，货币本该升值的。
However, not all economists agree that the yuan needs to be sharply revalued.At one extreme is Morris Goldstein, of the Peterson Institute for International Economics, who argues that the yuan is undervalued by 40% or more against the dollar and should immediately be revalued by 10-15%.In the other corner many highly respected economists, including Robert Mundell, an economics Nobel prize-winner, and Ronald McKinnon, of Stanford University, strongly argue against a big appreciation of the yuan.然而,并非所有的经济学家都同意人民币需要急速升值这一说法。一个极端是彼得森国际经济研究所的莫里斯.戈尔德施泰因，他主张人民币对美元被低估了40%或者更多，并应立刻升值10-15%。另一个极端是许多德高望重的经济学家，他们（包括诺贝尔经济学奖得主罗伯特.蒙代尔[5]，以及斯坦福大学的罗纳德.麦金农[6]）强烈反对人民币的大幅升值。
The devil to measure 流氓度量法
Economists find it devilishly hard to define the “correct value” for a currency.On purchasing-power parity(PPP), the yuan is clearly undervalued against the dollar.Perhaps by as much as 50%.But PPP is not useful for determining the optimal exchange rate between two countries of such different levels of income.It is natural for average prices to be lower in poorer countries because wages are lower.As countries get richer and their productivity rises, their real exchange rates appreciate.And although the depreciation in the yuan's real trade-weighted value since 202_ looks perverse, this follows a real appreciation of 50% between 1994 and 202_(see chart 1).经济学家发现给货币定义“正确的价值”难于上青天。就购买力平价[7]来讲，人民币对美元显然被低估了。大概50%那么多。然而购买力平价对确定不同收入水平的两国间的最优汇率没有作用。穷国因为工资较低所以自然而然地平均价格也比较低。随着国家变得富裕，生产力水平提高，实际汇率也会水涨船高。而尽管自从202_年以来，人民币的实际贸易加权值一直降低，这看起来是故意作对，但是这是因袭1994至202_年的实际上50%的增值。
A study by two IMF economists, Steven Dunaway and Xiangming Li, found that estimates for the undervaluation of the yuan ranged from zero to nearly 50%, depending on which method was used.Another recent study, by Yin-Wong Cheung, Menzie Chinn and Eiji Fujii, concluded that using conventional statistical methods it is hard to prove that the yuan is much undervalued.Such uncertainty may partly explain why America's Treasury Department has so far ducked labelling China as a currency manipulator in its twice-yearly report to Congress.Another reason is that it is loth to give ammunition to the protectionist lobby.两名国际货币基金组织经济学家——史蒂文.达纳韦和李向明（音）——的一项研究表明，因使用的方法不同，对于人民币低估的价值估计从零到50%不一而足。近来另一项来自Yin Wong Cheung, Menzie Chinn以及Eiji Fujii的研究,得出结论说很难用传统的统计方法来证明人民币被严重低估。这种不确定性可以部分地解释为何迄今为止美国财政部在给国会的半报告里一直避免把中国打上货币操纵者的标签。另一个原因是它讨厌给贸易保护主义议员（攻击中国）提供弹药。
Myth number two is that the sharp increase in China's trade surplus is due to an explosion in cheap exports.Until 202_ China's surplus was relatively modest, but it soared over the next two years(see chart 2).Jonathan Anderson, chief Asia economist at UBS, points out that export growth actually slowed between 202_ and 202_(see chart 3).The main reason for the bigger trade surplus was a sharp slowdown in the annual real growth rate in imports, from more than 30% in early 202_ to less than 15% last year.谬论二：中国贸易顺差的急速增加全拜廉价出口商品的剧增所赐。直到202_年中国的贸易顺差都是先对适中的，但在随后两年却突飞猛进。瑞士联合银行[8]亚洲首席经济学家乔纳森.安德森指出，实际上出口增长在202_至202_年间放缓了。巨额贸易顺差的主要原因是进口的实际增长率急速降低——从202_年初的超过30%到去年的不到15%。
The entire increase in China's trade surplus since 202_ has come from trade in heavy industrial materials and equipment.China used to import increasing amounts of steel, aluminium, chemicals and machinery, but import growth collapsed after 202_ when the government started to tighten policy, causing a sharp slowdown in construction, one of the biggest importers of machinery and materials.At the same time China continued to invest heavily in metals and equipment, creating substantial excess capacity, so import growth remained relatively weak last year.Mr Anderson argues that imports should recover as overcapacity is used up.自从202_年以来中国的贸易顺差整体增加源自重工业原料和设备的贸易。中国曾经不断增加进口钢材，铝，化工原料和机械,然而202_年政府开始紧缩政策，造成作为最大的机械原料进口者的建筑业的急剧衰退之后，进口增长暴跌。同时中国继续大量地投资金属和设备行业，创造坚实的超额生产能力，所以去年的进口增长仍然是比较疲软的。安德森先生认为，当过剩的生产能力被消耗殆尽的时候，进口应该会复苏。
The third fallacy is that imports from China destroy jobs and harm the American economy.It is hard to see how China can be blamed for job losses when America's unemployment rate(4.5%)is close to its lowest for decades.Trade with China may affect the composition of jobs in America, but it has little impact on total employment.It is true that some workers are harmed by trade with China, just as there are some losers from all international trade.But the American economy overall is better off, so in theory there is ample room to compensate any losers.谬论三：从中国进口摧毁就业机会，损伤美国经济。当美国的失业率(4.5%)跌至数十年来的最低点的时候，很难理解中国要为就业机会的流失负责。与中国的贸易会影响美国的就业结构，但却完全不会影响总就业人数。正如所有的国际贸易总会有失败者一样，一些劳动者因与中国的贸易而受损。然而美国的总体经济境况更好了，所以理论上有足够的余地补偿所有的失败者。
Trade with China helps, not harms the average American.Thanks to imports from China, prices are lower and real incomes higher.Commentators often refer to the “cheap” yuan as being an unfair subsidy for Chinese exporters.But it is a moot question who exactly is subsidising whom.Not only do cheap imports subsidise American consumers, but China's large purchases of Treasury bonds also hold down American interest rates, thereby subsidising home buyers.Suppose that overnight the yuan rose by 30%, what would happen? American interest rates would rise as China needed to buy fewer Treasury securities and prices at Wal-Mart would increase.If consumer spending and imports then collapsed, this would certainly reduce America's trade deficit, but in a much more painful way than most Americans have in mind.同中国的贸易帮助了而非损害了普通的美国人。多亏从中国进口商品，价格更加低廉而实际收入增加了。评论员们经常把“便宜的”人民币作为给中国出口商的不公平补贴来引用。然而到底谁给了谁好处，这是个悬而未决的问题。非但廉价的进口商品使美国消费者获益，而且中国大量购买政府债券还抑制了美国的利率，藉此让家庭型顾客受惠。假如一夜之间人民币升值30%，会发生什么事？因为中国只需购买很少的国库证券，美国的利率就会上升；而沃尔玛的价格也会提高。如果压缩消费性开支和进口量，的确会减少美国的贸易逆差，但是其痛苦程度是大多数美国人做梦都想不到的。
Wishful thinking 一厢情愿
The biggest myth of all is that a revaluation of the yuan would greatly reduce America's trade deficit.The real cause of the deficit is that Americans spend too much and save too little.This means that the country has to import surplus savings from abroad by running a current-account deficit.If a stronger yuan did not cause Americans to save more, it would do little by itself to reduce the trade deficit.最大的谬论是，人民币升值将极大的减少美国的贸易逆差。逆差的真正原因是美国人消费太多而储蓄太少。这就意味着，国家不得不通过经常帐户赤字从国外吸入过剩储蓄。如果更加坚挺的人民币并没有导致美国人储蓄更多，（人民币想）减少贸易逆差也是心有余力不足。
Another reason why even a big rise in the yuan would do little to reduce America's deficit is that there is little overlap between American and Chinese production, so American goods cannot replace Chinese imports.Instead, other countries, such as Indonesia and Vietnam, would probably replace the Chinese.Shifting purchases to higher-cost producers amounts to imposing a tax on American consumers, says Stephen Roach, chief economist of Morgan Stanley.人民币的急速升值对减少美国的逆差无能为力的另一个原因是，中国的和美国的产品之间几乎没有重叠，因此美国商品不能替代从中国进口的商品。相反，其他诸如印度尼西亚和越南等国家或许将取中国而代之。转而购买高成本生产者的商品等于是对美国消费者征税，摩根斯坦利[9]首席经济学家史蒂芬.罗奇如是说。
Even where America and China do compete, as in electronics, the high import content of China's exports blunts the impact of exchange-rate movements on export prices, because a rise in the yuan reduces input costs.About half of China's exports consist of goods that have been assembled from imported components.And domestic wages and materials account for about 30% of the cost of those re-exports.Mr Anderson estimates that a 10% rise in the yuan would increase average export prices by only 3-5%.就算在中美间确有竞争的领域（如电子设备），由于人民币升值减少了投入的成本,中国出口商品的极高的进口构成也会钝化汇率变化对出口价格的影响。中国大约一半的出口由来自进口零部件组装而成的商品构成。而国内的薪金和原料大约只占那些再出口商品成本的30%。安德森先生估计，人民币升值10%仅会让平均出口价格增加3-5%。
If a yuan revaluation encouraged other Asian economies to follow suit, the impact on America's trade deficit would be larger, but still modest.If a 10% revaluation of the yuan were matched by all other Asian currencies, the dollar's trade-weighted index would fall by 4%.Yet, the 19% decline in the dollar's trade-weighted index since early 202_ has failed to trim the deficit.如果人民币升值鼓励其他亚洲经济体亦步亦趋，对美国贸易逆差的影响将会较大，但仍然是适中的。如果其他亚洲货币和人民币一起升值10%，美元的贸易加权指数将会下跌4%。然而，202_年初以来，美元的贸易加权指数跌落19%，却并没有平衡贸易逆差。
None of this means that a yuan revaluation leaves America's trade deficit unchanged, simply that any change would probably be small.Nouriel Roubini, of Roubini Global Economics, finds evidence that China's trade balance is affected by movements in its exchange rate: the yuan has fallen sharply against the euro since 202_ as a result of the dollar's decline, and China's exports to Europe have consequently grown at a faster rate than its exports to America.A stronger yuan might therefore curb China's exports to America, but America's deficit would continue to loom large if imports from China were simply replaced by those from elsewhere.这并不是意味着人民币的升值无力改变美国的贸易逆差，简单来说即使有也很微弱。洛宾尼全球经济的诺瑞尔.洛宾尼发现了中国的贸易平衡受汇率影响的证据：受美元贬值的牵连，202_年以来人民币对欧元急速贬值，而结果中国对欧洲的出口以比出口美国更快的速度增长。因此更加坚挺的人民币可能抑制中国对美国的出口，然而如果仅是简单地用其他国家替代中国的话，美国的贸易逆差将继续显得突出。
Chinese whispers 中国私语
Many of the arguments heard in America in favour of a big revaluation of the yuan are flawed or at least exaggerated.However, many of the arguments used in Beijing for why a revaluation would endanger China's economy are equally suspect.For instance, the common claim that a big jump would seriously harm China's growth and employment contradicts the argument(also favoured by Beijing)that an appreciation would have little effect on China's trade surplus with America.在美国听到的赞成人民币大力升值的论调是风生水起，或者至少是夸大其词。然而,北京使用的解释为何升值会危及中国经济的许多论证同样值得怀疑。例如,关于大的上涨将严重损害中国的增长和就业的普遍主张与增值几乎不会影响中国对美国的贸易顺差的论点（挠到了北京的痒处）相矛盾。
Or take another popular line of defence: it is often asserted that China cannot afford a more flexible exchange rate until its dodgy banking system is reformed and strengthened.Eswar Prasad, an economist at Cornell University, says this argument has it completely backwards.The distortions caused by today's rigid exchange-rate regime may themselves be the biggest threat to Chinese financial stability.A sound banking system requires an independent monetary policy, which uses interest rates rather than blunt directives, to guide credit.And a country cannot control its monetary policy unless it accepts a more flexible exchange rate.或者用另一个更受欢迎的防线：中国经常宣称在总是出岔子的金融系统得到改革并巩固之前，受不了更具弹性的汇率体系。康奈尔大学[10]的经济学家埃斯华.普拉萨德表示这种论点是完全颠倒的。由固定汇率体系引起的扭曲本身可能就是中国金融稳定的最大的威胁。健全的金融系统需要独立自主的货币政策，利用利率而不是生硬的指令来管理信贷。一个国家只有采取更具弹性的汇率制度才能控制金融政策。
By tying the yuan closely to the dollar, China has been forced to hold its interest rates lower than is prudent: higher rates would attract more “hot money” from abroad, putting upward pressure on the currency.The real rate of interest paid on bank deposits is negative and lending rates are far too low for such a fast-growing economy.Cheap money results in excessive bank lending and poor investment decisions, which could lead to an increase in non-performing loans.Excessively low interest rates are also fuelling stockmarket and property bubbles.通过人民币与美元紧密挂钩，中国已被迫维持低到不能用谨慎来形容的利率水平：高利率会吸引更多国外的“热钱”[11]，给货币带来升值压力。为银行存款支付的实际利息率是负数，而贷款利率对于这样快速增长的经济来说太低了。低利借款源于过多的银行贷款和导致不良贷款[12]增加的拙劣的投资方案。过低的利率水平还会助长股票市场以及房地产市场的泡沫。
News that China's real GDP surged by a breathtaking 11.1% in the year to the first quarter and that consumer-price inflation had risen to 3.3% in March(it eased to 3% in April), stoked fears that the economy is out of control.But concerns about overheating in the usual sense of excess demand are exaggerated.China's widening current-account surplus and its strong investment imply excess supply.Excluding food, the inflation rate is only 0.9%.Instead, the real concern is that excess liquidity, as a result of the surge in foreign-exchange reserves and low interest rates, is flooding into shares(see article).Households are withdrawing money from low-yielding bank accounts to bet on the stockmarket.China needs much higher interest rates to cool its asset markets.To regain control over its monetary policy China needs to let the yuan rise.今年一季度中国的实际国内总产值骤增了惊心动魄的11.1%，三月份的消费价格指数[13]上涨3.3%(四月份减少到3%),这些消息给经济失控的担心火上浇油。但是对于一般来说是需求过大而经济过热的忧虑是耸人听闻了。中国不断增长的经常帐户盈余以及强劲投资意味着超额供给。除食物以外，通货膨胀率仅为0.9%。相反，真正应该担心的是，外汇储备以及低利率资金带来的过剩的流动性大量涌入股票市场。家庭从低收益的银行帐户中取出资金，到股市里一博输赢。中国需要更高的利率来冷却资本市场。为了恢复对金融政策的控制，中国需要让人民币升值。
A revaluation could also help the government succeed in shifting the balance of growth away from investment and net exports towards consumption.A stronger exchange rate would boost consumers' purchasing power, allowing them to buy more foreign goods.Excess saving in China is as much to blame for global imbalances as inadequate saving in America.升值还可以帮助政府成功调整增长的平衡，远离投资和净出口，而接近消费。坚挺的汇率将增加消费者的购买力,使他们能够购买更多的外国商品。中国的超额储蓄，跟美国的不充分储蓄一起作为全球不平衡的原因而广受指责。
Most of the increase in saving has come from Chinese companies, which are earning record profits.But household saving is also kept high by the poor public provision of health, education and pensions.Partly as a result, consumption accounts for an unusually low share of GDP.储蓄增长的大部分来自中国的公司,他们正在赚取前所未有的利润。然而家庭储蓄率也因为健康,教育和养老金的糟糕的公共供给而居高不下。部分导致了，消费部门占GDP比重罕见的低。
The good news is that the mix of growth is starting to become more balanced: over the past year, investment has slowed while retail sales have quickened, rising by 15.5% in the year to April.In other words, consumer spending is now growing faster than GDP.Dragonomics, a Beijing-based research firm, estimates that consumption rose from 37% to 40% of China's nominal GDP growth in 202_ and is set to rise again this year.好消息是，增长的混乱开始变得平衡的多了：去年，投资放缓，而零售销售额活跃，从年初到四月份增长了15.5%。换句话说,现在消费性开支比国内总产值增长更快。北京的研究公司Dragonomics估计，202_年消费占中国的名义国内总产值增长的比例从37%上升到40%，而今年也再次开始增长。
The stronger growth in Chinese consumer spending has got much less attention in America than the sharp increase in the country's trade surplus.The contribution of net exports to China's growth has increased so far this year.However, the near doubling of its trade surplus in the first four months of the year was probably a one-off, because firms brought forward their shipments so as to avoid an expected reduction in export-tax rebates.Exporters are also thought to be overstating their export revenues in order to dodge capital controls and bring in foreign money to invest in Chinese assets.If so, the trade surplus should stabilise in coming months.中国消费性开支的强劲增长在美国引起的注意要比中国贸易顺差的急剧增加少的多。今年净出口对中国的增长的贡献增长如此之多。然而,前四个月近乎翻倍的贸易顺差大概是个例外，因为公司为了避免预期的出口退税的减少而提前发货。出口商们也被认为是为了躲避资本管制而高估出口收入，而且携带外币到中国投资。如果是这样的话,贸易顺差将在下个月趋于稳定。
In the long run, stronger domestic consumption could trim China's trade surplus.The government can encourage this by spending more.Its spending on health care and education rose by an average of 50% last year and it is budgeted to rise by more than 60% this year—but from such low levels that it could take years to increase social spending by enough to encourage households to save a lot less.Meanwhile, a stronger yuan would help to rebalance the mix of China's growth.长期来看,强劲的国内消费会平衡中国的贸易顺差。政府可以通过更多地支出来鼓励这种做法。去年医疗保健以及教育的支出平均增长50%，今年的预算将增长超过60%——不过从这么低的水平发展到充分鼓励家庭较少储蓄可能要费时多年来增加社会支出。同时,坚挺的人民币有助于再平衡中国增长的混乱。
Mirror image 镜花水月 This turns the whole debate about China's exchange-rate policy on its head.It is China that has the most to gain from allowing the yuan to rise.If the spat between America and China were to ignite protectionism or financial instability, it could endanger the whole world economy.All the more foolish, therefore, that economic relations are based on misperceptions on both sides.America needs to stop making China a scapegoat for the failures of American policy.Only if it gets its own economic house in order, by boosting domestic saving, will its “advice” to Beijing seem credible.Likewise, China has no right to criticise American policy when its own economy remains unbalanced.所有关于中国汇率政策的讨论引起了高层的注意。是中国从允许人民币升值中获益最多。如果中美间的口水战引爆贸易保护主义或者金融动荡，它将危及整个世界经济。因此，最愚蠢的是，这种经济关系是基于双方的错知错觉。美国需要停止让中国成为其政策破产的替罪羊。只有当它把它自己的经济搞得秩序井然的时候，它对北京的“建议”才会看起来可信。同样地，中国没有资格在自身经济失衡的情况下指责美国的政策。
America is right that China needs to revalue, but for the wrong reasons.And arguing that a revaluation helps America's economy makes it less likely that Beijing will act.Moreover, if George Bush foolishly slapped harsh trade sanctions on China, America's economy would be the biggest loser.Likewise, China is foolish to resist a more flexible exchange rate partly because it does not want to be seen as caving in to America's demands, when it is in its own interest.If the world's two leading engines of growth remain at loggerheads, everyone will pay the price.美国要求中国升值人民币是正确的，但是为了错误的理由。而主张升值会对美国经济有所帮助（这一错误的理由）则会减少北京真正采取措施的可能性。而且,如果乔治.布什傻到鼓吹给以中国严厉的贸易制裁，美国经济将是最大的输家。同样地，中国也不聪明——当它自己有利可图，只部分地出于不想被视为屈服美国的要求的想法，从而就抵制更具弹性的汇率机制。如果这两个世界领先的增长发动机仍然呆头呆脑，所有人都将会为此付出代价。
注释：
[1].出口退税，是指对出口商品已征收的国内税部分或全部退还给出口商的一种措施，这也是国际惯例。
[2].对倾销商品所征收的进口附加税。当进口国因外国倾销某种产品，国内产业受到损害时，征收相当于出口国国内市场价格与倾销价格之间差额的进口税。目的在于抵制倾销，保护国内产业。反倾销税从来是贸易大国进行关税战、贸易战的重要工具。
[3].经常项目是和资本项目相对的概念，是指国际收支中经常发生的交易项目，经常项目反映本国与外国交往中经常发生的项目，包括贸易收支（也就是通常的进出口）、劳务收支（如：运输、港口、通讯和旅游等）和单方面转移（如：侨民汇款、无偿援助和捐赠、国际组织收支等）。是最具综合性的对外贸易的指数。其他的国际收支项目，如投资、贷款等属于资本项目。
[4].根据一国各贸易伙伴的相对贸易量，给它的币值进行加权，来评估该国货币是否坚挺的一种方法。
[5].美国哥伦比亚大学教授、1999年诺贝尔经济学奖获得者、“最优货币区理论”的奠基人，蒙代尔教授对经济学的伟大贡献，一是开放条件下宏观稳定政策的理论(蒙代尔——弗莱明模型)，二是最优货币区域理论。
[6].美国斯坦福大学教授、当代金融发展理论奠基人
[7].两国货币之所以能够互相兑换，是因为它们各自在国内具有购买力，因而两国货币的汇率应该等于这两国货币的国内购买力大小之比。由于一国货币购买力的大小与该国通货膨胀率和物价的变动有关，二者呈负相关关系，因此，汇率将随通货膨胀率与物价的变动而变动。
[8].瑞士最大的商业银行，世界大跨国银行之一。1992年的资产额为1832.09 亿美元，居世界大银行第二十七位，职工约2万人，总行设在苏黎世。该银行是1912年由温特图尔银行和托根贝格银行合并组成的。
[9].受到《格拉斯——斯蒂格尔法案》的压力，70年前的1935年春天，在缅因州岸边的小岛农场里，摩根财团做出了不可变更的决定：将摩根银行拆分成两部分：一部分为JP摩根，继续从事传统的商业银行业务；另一部分被分离出成立一家完全独立的投资银行，名叫摩根士丹利。从1935年到1970年，大摩一统天下的威力令人侧目。今后再也不会有哪个投资银行能与之相提并论。它的客户囊括了全球十大石油巨头中的6个，美国十大公司的7个。当时惟一的广告词就是“如果上帝要融资，他也要找摩根士丹利。” 因此，有人说“摩根士丹利继承了美国历史上最强大的金融集团——摩根财团的大部分贵族血统，代表了美国金融巨头主导现代全球金融市场的光荣历史。”因此，《摩根财团》一书认为“摩根的战略就是使得客户感觉到自己获准加入了一家私人俱乐部，而其账户就相当于贵族社会的成员卡一样。” 1974年，摩根士丹利进行了第一次敌意大兼并，就由此主宰了敌意收购这个蛮横的世界。其后的20多年里，大摩一直是美国头号兼并顾问。在202_年之前，它的股本收益率超过30%，一直被列为上市证券公司中效益最好的。
[10].康乃尔大学Cornell University(NY)建于1865年，是由艾兹拉?康乃尔创建的。在所有“常春藤盟校”中，康乃尔是历史最短的一个，而同时它又是最大的一个。
[11].“热钱（hot money）”、“游资”是人们对国际套利资本的通俗说法，是充斥在世界上，无特定用途的流动资金。也有人形象地把国际套利资本称做“过江龙”、“金融鳄鱼”。它是为追求最高报酬及最低风险，在国际金融市场上迅速流动的短期投机性资金。它的最大特点就是短期、套利和投机。当人民币汇率预期改善、利率高于外币时，“热钱”就会千方百计地流入套利。一旦这两个条件发生反方向变化时，“热钱”就会迅速撤出，从而引起金融市场的动荡。
[12].俗称呆坏账，也就是说，银行发放的贷款不能按预先约定的期限、利率收回本金和利息。包括逾期贷款（贷款到期限未还的贷款）、呆滞贷款（逾期两年以上的贷款）和呆帐贷款（需要核销的收不回的贷款）三种情况。
[13].反映居民生活中的产品和劳务价格所统计出来的物价变动指标，通常是作为观察通货膨胀水平的重要指标。如果消费者物价指数升幅过大，表明通胀过渡，会带来经济不稳定，央行就会有紧缩货币政策和财政政策的风险，从而会造成经济前景不明朗。大于3%就称为通货膨胀。
Jun 21st 202_ From The Economist print edition
Bond investors are living in a world where nobody eats or drives 债券投资者生活在一个无人吃饭出行的世界
DO THE financial markets believe that the typical American consumer is on a permanent fast, walks everywhere and survives without heating or air conditioning? After a jittery few weeks, bond markets rallied on June 15th on news that America's core consumer price index rose by just 0.1% in May.The data were warmly greeted by stockmarkets too.The Dow Jones index rose by 86 points on the day.Investors decided that the absence of price pressures would calm the nerves of rate-setters at the Federal Reserve, who have been worrying out loud about “elevated” core inflation.典型美国消费者长期滴食不进，步行去他们要去的地方，而且生活的地方没有暖气也没有空调，金融市场能相信这一切吗？经过几周短幅波荡，受美国核心CPI五月增长仅为0.1%的影响，债券市场止跌回升。这项数据在证券市场也备受欢迎。道琼斯指数当天增长了86点。投资者们确信没有了的价格压力，应该可以舒缓联邦储备系统那些利率制定者的神经，因为他们一直绞尽脑汁解决不断升级的核心通货膨胀。
What the markets blithely ignored was the day's bad news.Headline consumer prices rose by 0.7%, the biggest monthly increase for nearly two years.Unlike core inflation, the headline measure includes fuel costs, which rose sharply, as well as food prices.For bond prices to rise on such a big jump in inflation, markets must be placing a great deal of faith in the core index as the true gauge of price pressures.Is that wise?
当天市场参与者过于乐观以至于根本没有注意到坏消息。整体物价消费增长了0.7%，成为两年内涨幅最高的一个月。与核心通货膨胀不同的是整体物价消费度量标准包括迅速增长的燃料费以及食品价格。单纯因为债券价格在通胀中暴涨，就为市场核心指标设置犹如真正价格压力标尺的一系列的标准，这明智么？
The cold-and-hungry index “饥寒交迫”的指数
The lure of core inflation as a barometer is that headline inflation rates tend to be volatile.Last June the annual headline rate in America, pushed up by soaring oil prices, was as high as 4.3%, but by October it had plunged to 1.3%.The rationale for excluding food and fuel is to filter out prices that jump around for temporary reasons, such as the vagaries of the weather or the messy politics of the Middle East.A good core index excludes this noise, leaving only the enduring part of inflation that reflects the weight of spending in the economy.核心通货膨胀作为晴雨表，其发展的不稳定预示着整体通货膨胀率的起伏。去年六月，由于飞涨的油价的带动，美国年整体通货膨胀增长高达4.3%，但到十月止增长率只有1.3%。将食品及燃料费用排除在外，其原理在于可以滤除那些由于临时原因而上涨的价格，此种情况就像是中东阴晴不定的天气和杂乱无章的政治。而一个良好的核心指标不会出现这些不和谐的声音，只有可以反映经济开销比重的通货膨胀这一不变的部分。
Despite these statistical merits, there are several reasons not to rely blindly on core measures.First, the elements that the core index excludes are likely to pick up lasting shifts in inflation pressures earlier.Food and petrol are frequent purchases and their prices tend to be less “sticky” than those for more durable goods.Rising retail food prices can sometimes signal general price pressures.They are also a strong influence on perceptions of inflation, because consumers encounter them so frequently.尽管这些统计数据对我们有好处，但是还有些原因不是盲目的依赖于核心标准的。首先，那些被核心指标排除的因素很可能比其他因素更早的加速通货膨胀压力的持久变化。食品和汽油是大家频繁购买的物品，所以他们的价格比起那些耐久品来说相对不稳定。零售食品价格的提高有时则预示着物价的压力。这些因素还很大程度的影响通货膨胀，因为大家会经常遇到这些问题。
Second, the core and volatile elements of inflation are not entirely independent.Increases in food and energy costs can squeeze spending on other goods and services, depressing prices and artificially lowering core inflation.That is the reason why Mervyn King, the Bank of England's governor, referred in a speech earlier this month to the practice of excluding price categories as “highly misleading”.其次，通货膨胀的核心因素与可变因素在一定程度上是相互依存的。食品与能量开销的增加可以减少在其他物品与服务的花费，降低物价，还可以人工地降低核心通货膨胀。这就是英国银行管理者默文?金为什么在本月初的讲话中提到排除一些价格种类的做法是“在很大程度上是一种误导”。
Third, core measures tend to stress the disinflationary supply-side of globalisation, but play down the inflationary pressures on demand.The integration of China and India into the global economy has led to lower prices for manufactured goods, trimming core inflation rates.But there is a sting in the tail: rapid growth in emerging economies has pumped up global demand for primary resources and boosted commodity-price inflation—not just in oil but in food too(see article).When these pressures are sustained, as they have been, core measures will under-represent true inflation.第三，核心度量标准趋向于强调通过全球化的减税刺激生产和投资来制止通货膨胀，但是一经需求便会降低通货膨胀压力。中印共同进入全球经济使得手工制成品的价格下降，并使核心通货膨胀率得以调节。然而，倒霉事在后头：新兴经济的迅速增长增加了全球对主要资源和暴增的日用品价格的不断需求——不仅是油类价格还有食品价格。这些压力一直以来都存在并将持续下去，这样一来核心标准将会低估真正的通货膨胀。
The truth is that no index is perfect(there is a long argument to be had about whether housing costs are properly measured in the core number as well).What matters most are what real consumers spend their money on—and how they react to the prices of those things.Core measures are certainly useful if they can efficiently strip out price changes that are likely to prove fleeting, without losing track of underlying inflation.But investors should remember that they are never all you need to know about inflation.Unless, of course, you live in a world without cars, air conditioners and cornflakes.事实是没有一项指标是完善的（关于住房成本在核心指数中的测量是否恰当存在着长期争论）。最重要的问题是真正的消费者把钱花费到了哪里——以及他们对于那些物价有何反应。如果核心措施能够有效地消除那些短暂且有潜在通货膨胀趋势的价格变化，那么这些措施就一定是有帮助的。但是投资者们要记住：关于通货膨胀，了解这些远远不够。当然，除非你生活在一个没有汽车，没有空调，没有脆玉米片的世界。
Aug 16th 202_ | NEW YORK From The Economist print edition
Turmoil in America's mortgage market has spread far and wide 美国次级债危机已经广泛蔓延
IF THE speed with which financial-market turmoil has spread around the world has been unnerving, fears of an even more alarming form of contagion are surfacing: it may undermine America's economy.如果遍及全球的金融市场动荡速度已经让人恐慌了，那么一种更让人担心的恐慌蔓延形式正在浮出水面：这种恐慌将会危及美国经济。
The health of the world economy is the main source of optimism at a time of unstable markets.But Hank Paulson, America's treasury secretary, acknowledged this week to the Wall Street Journal that the turmoil would “extract a penalty on the growth rate” of the American economy.在一个多变的市场时期，世界经济的健康是乐观主义的主要信心来源。但是美国财政部长Hank Paulson知道这个星期对于华尔街来说，动荡可能“向美国经济增长率开出一张罚单”
Stockmarket investors are already worried that problems in the housing market are sapping the economy's vigour.This week Wal-Mart, the world's biggest retailer, added to fears when its boss said that American consumers—who have helped underpin economic growth—face pressures and that the retailer's profits this year would suffer.Its share price duly tumbled on August 14th, helping to drag down the market.Sagging confidence, as a result of falling markets and troubles in the banks, would only make matters worse.证券市场的投资者们已经担心房地产市场的问题正在消耗美国经济的元气。这个星期当世界最大的零售企业沃尔玛的老板说有力支撑美国经济增长的的消费者面临压力，而沃尔玛今年底利润会下降的时候，世界最大的零售商也加入到了恐慌的行列。同时8月14日沃尔玛的股价也下挫，顺带拖累了市场。市价下跌和银行问题不断导致了市场信心下跌，这只能让经济形势更糟。
The problems are not confined to America.Subprime mortgage losses have hit bank shares and stockmarkets around the globe.Fear that tighter debt markets will inhibit leveraged buyouts that pushed share prices higher in the first half of the year has cast a shadow over the world's stockmarkets.Volatility, which still reflected complacency in the American stockmarket many months after the subprime problems erupted, now registers something approaching panic(see chart).问题不仅局限于美国。次级债损失打击银行股价和世界证券市场。对于愈加紧缩的债券市场为了防止上半年推高股票价格而禁止负债收购的担心，已经为全球证券市场制造了阴影。次级市场问题爆发以后几个月仍然反应公众对美国证券市场信心的波动性，现在也显示有些指标临近恐慌。（图---芝加哥波动率指数）
As margin calls have forced hedge funds to raise cash, that has often meant purging their most liquid assets, such as oil.Speculative selling, as well as fears about the health of the American economy, have dragged oil prices well below their peak of $79 per barrel in late July.The Economist's metals index is 14% below its highs in May.当追加保证金通知已经强迫对冲基金增加现金，这经常意味着要求它们出售例如石油等大部分流动资产。投机性抛售和对美国经济形势的担心已经使油价从七月末的79$大幅降低。经济学家的金属价格指数低于它五月份的14%。
Shares in Asian banks, such as Mizuho and Australia's Macquarie, have had a miserable month, pushing down the region's stockmarkets.On August 15th Basis Capital, an Australian hedge-fund manager, said losses at one of its funds may top 80%.A day later, shares in RAMS, one of the country's mortgage lenders, tumbled 60% after it sought emergency funding.就像日本的瑞穗和澳大利亚的麦格理已经有了悲惨的一个月，在亚洲银行类股票打击了该地区的证券市场。8月15日澳大利亚的对冲基金Basis Capital经理说他损失最多的一支基金可能达80%。同日晚些时候，澳大利亚的抵押贷款机构RAMS在其寻找应急基金以后股价下挫60%。
The market turmoil has even extended into what are meant to be the safest—nay, dullest—corners of the investment universe.On August 14th Sentinel Management Group, which invests on behalf of traders in conservative investments in the money market, attempted to halt withdrawals because of the market turmoil.“We had previously thought that the market would return to some semblance of order and that our clients would not join in the panic.Unfortunately, this has not been the case,” it complained.市场的动荡甚至延伸到了本应该安全的投资领域的角落。在8月14日，基于客户利益在金融市场做稳健投资的Sentinel Management Group，由于市场动荡，试图阻止客户大量撤回资金。它抱怨：“我们曾经以为市场可能回到某种表面的秩序，这样我们的客户可能就不会加入到恐慌的行列中。不幸的是，事实不是这样。”
Similarly, there has been pain in some “enhanced cash funds”—in effect, money-market funds catering to institutional investors that can invest part of their portfolios in asset-backed securities.The flu has battered down even the hardiest parts of the immune system.一些“增强现金基金”也有类似的苦恼——结果，货币市场基金能够通过投资部分的利润在资产证券化上迎合机构投资者。这“流感”甚至已经破坏免疫系统最强大的部分了。
Recession in America looks increasingly likely.Can booming emerging markets save the world economy?
美国衰退可能性增大。繁荣的新兴经济市场能否挽救世界经济？
IN 1929, days after the stockmarket crash, the Harvard Economic Society reassured its subscribers: “A severe depression is outside the range of probability”.In a survey in March 202_, 95% of American economists said there would not be a recession, even though one had already started.Today, most economists do not forecast a recession in America, but the profession's pitiful forecasting record offers little comfort.Our latest assessment(see article)suggests that the United States may well be heading for recession.1929年的美国股市崩溃之后，哈佛经济学社给它的赞助者打了一剂定心剂：“发生经济大萧条的可能性微乎其微。”202_年3月的一份调查显示，95%的美国经济学家认为经济不会衰退，即便衰退已经开始。现在，大多数的经济学家预测美国不存在经济衰退。但因为他们乏善可陈的预测成绩，人们并没有感到安心。我们最新的评估显示，美国经济正走向衰退。
Granted, GDP grew by a robust 3.9%, at an annual rate, in the third quarter.Granted also, revisions may well push this figure up.But that was the past.More timely signs suggest that the economy could stall in this quarter.By early next year, output and jobs could be shrinking.The main cause is the imploding housing market.Experts said that house prices could never fall nationwide.But fall they have, by 5% in the past 12 months.Residential investment has collapsed, but a glut of unsold homes means that prices have much further to drop.Americans' spending is likely to be dented much more by a fall in house prices than it was in 202_ by the stockmarket's collapse.With house prices lower and credit conditions tighter as a result of the subprime crisis, households can no longer borrow against capital gains to support their spending.诚然，美国第三季度的经济增长率高达3.9%，而且，修正后的增长率可能更高。但那已经过去了。很多即期数据显示，美国经济可能会在这个季度熄火。急转直下的房地产市场，可能会导致下年年初产出和工作机会的收缩。虽然专家们说过不会出现全国性范围的房价下跌，但在过去12个月房价已经下跌了5%。房产投资已经崩溃了，大批买不出去的商品房意味着住房价格会继续下跌。由于住房价格的下跌，美国国内支出与股市跳水的202_年相比要少得多。次贷危机让房产价格进一步下降,让信贷环境更加恶劣,那些房东再也不能借到用于支出的资金。
Dearer oil is set to squeeze households further(this week's drop in crude prices notwithstanding).Consumer confidence has already fallen sharply.It cannot be long before consumer spending stumbles, which in turn would hurt companies' profits and investment.The weak dollar will boost exports, but at only 12% of GDP, exports are too small to make up for a weakening of consumer spending, which accounts for 70%.昂贵的石油让居民的手头更紧，虽然这个星期原油价格有一定下降。消费者信心已经急剧下，消费的大幅下降为时不远了。这种下降反过来会损害企业的利润和投资。弱势美元能增加出口，但仅占GDP12%的出口并不足以抵消占GDP70%的消费支出的弱化。
I want to break free
自由贸易的迷思
Will an American recession drag the rest of the world down with it? The economies of Europe and Japan rebounded strongly in the third quarter, but look likely to slow down.Although both should be able to keep chugging along, neither is likely to set any great pace.Strengthening currencies will hurt exporters in both places.Europe's own housing hotspots are cooling, and some of its banks have been sideswiped by America's subprime ills.美国经济衰退是否会拖累整个世界？虽然第三季度，欧洲和日本的经济强劲反弹，但看起来很可能趋缓。虽然两者都能稳步前进，但却不能保持一致步骤。欧元和日元汇率的上升会损害他们的出口。欧洲的房产热点正在冷却，而且一些银行在美国次贷危机中遭受波及。
The best hope that global growth can stay strong lies instead with emerging economies.A decade ago, the thought that so much depended on these crisis-prone places would have been terrifying.Yet thanks largely to economic reforms, their annual growth rate has surged to around 7%.This year they will contribute half of the globe's GDP growth, measured at market exchange rates, over three times as much as America.In the past, emerging economies have often needed bailing out by the rich world.This time they could be the rescuers.现在只能期望，新兴经济体能让世界经济保持强劲增长。要是在十年前，这种认为世界经济必须依赖这些容易爆发危机的地区的想法，能让人不寒而栗。得益于经济的重组，新兴经济的经济增长率达到7%。以市场汇率计算，他们将贡献今年世界经济的一半增长，是美国的3倍之多。在过年，新兴经济经常需要世界的救济。这次，他们充当了一次救世主。
Of course, a recession in America would reduce emerging economies' exports, but they are less vulnerable than they used to be.America's importance as an engine of global growth has been exaggerated.Since 202_ its share of world imports has dropped from 19% to 14%.Its vast current-account deficit has started to shrink, meaning that America is no longer pulling along the rest of the world.Yet growth in emerging economies has quickened, partly thanks to demand at home.In the first half of this year the increase in consumer spending(in actual dollar terms)in China and India added more to global GDP growth than that in America.当然，新兴经济的出口会因美国的衰退而减少，但他们已经没有以前那么脆弱了。美国进口做为世界经济增长发动机的作用被过分夸大。到202_年，美国进口在世界进口所占的份额从19%下降到14%。经常性帐户赤字余额开始缩减，意味美国不再是世界经济的拉动者。新兴经济的加速增长，一部分要归功于国内需求。中国和印度今年前半年消费者支出的增长（以美元计）对全球GDP增长的贡献更甚于美国。
Most emerging economies are in healthier shape than ever(see article).They are no longer financially dependent on the rest of the world, but have large foreign-exchange reserves—no less than three-quarters of the global total.Though there are some notable exceptions, most of them have small budget deficits(another change from the past), so they can boost spending to offset weaker exports if need be.大部分新兴经济体的增长要比以前更健康。他们不再依靠外部资金，相反拥有大量的外汇储备——不少于世界外汇储备总量的四分之三。虽然存在一些例外，更多的新兴经济体只有很少的预算赤字（另一个变化），因此他们能以增加支出的方式去抵消出口减少带来的不利影响。
This does not mean emerging economies will grow fast enough to make up for the whole of a fall in America's output.Most of them will slow a bit next year: for instance, China's growth rate may dip to “only” 10%.So global growth will ease—which, after five years at an average of almost 5%, close to its fastest pace ever, it needs to do.But thanks to the vigour of the new titans, it will stay above its 30-year average of 3.5%.但这并不意味，新兴经济的增长能够快到消除美国产出下降带来的后果。大部分新兴经济下年的增长将会减缓：比如，中国的增长率可能下降到“只有”10%。所以，在经历了5年年均5%——接近历史最高水平——的增长之后，全球经济增长将会降温，这也是必须的。但得益于新经济巨人的活力，世界经济的增长率仍会高于3.5%这个30年年均增长率。
A tale of two prices
价格背后的故事
The rising importance of the world's new giants will not only boost growth.It will also shift relative prices, notably those of oil and the dollar.And the consequences of this will be less comfortable for developed countries, especially America.日益重要的世界大事并不仅仅是如何促进经济增长，还有如何以相对价格标示石油和美元。对发达国家，尤其是美国来说，这件事更加紧迫。
The oil price has risen mainly because of strong demand in emerging economies, which have accounted for as much as four-fifths of the total increase in oil consumption in the past five years.In past American recessions the oil price usually fell.This time it is likely to hold up.That will not only hurt the finances of Western consumers, but may also make the jobs of their central bankers harder, by combining inflationary pressure with economic slowdown.石油价格的上涨，主要是因为新兴经济体的强劲需求。过去5年中，石油消费增长中的五分之四来自新兴经济体。以前美国的衰退会造成油价的应声下跌。这次油价却居高不下，不但损害了西方消费者的财政，而且和通胀一道，让央行的工作更为棘手。
The enfeebled dollar—lately in sight of $1.50 to the euro—would be weaker still without enormous purchases by central banks in emerging economies.This support is now waning.China and others are putting a smaller share of increases in reserves into the American currency.And Asian and Middle Eastern countries with currencies linked to the dollar are facing rising inflation, but falling American interest rates make it harder to tighten their own monetary policy.They may have to let their currencies rise against the sickly greenback, meaning they will need to buy fewer dollars.More important, as international investors wake up to the relative weakening of America's economic power, they will surely question why they hold the bulk of their wealth in dollars.The dollar's decline already amounts to the biggest default in history, having wiped far more off the value of foreigners' assets than any emerging market has ever done.如果新兴经济体的央行不大量买进美元的话，本来就虚弱的美元——1欧元兑1.5美元——可能会更加弱势。他们的支持是苍白乏力的。中国和其他国家的央行投入美元的外汇储备越来越少。那些货币和美元挂购的亚洲和中东国家正面临不断上升的通货膨胀，持续下跌的美元利率又让他们更难以收紧货币政策。因此，他们不得不让他们的货币保持对疲弱美元的升值。这就意味着他们只需要购买比以前少的美元。更要命的是，国际投资者意识到美国经济的相对虚弱，他们当然会问为什么他们要持有大量的美元资产。美元下跌已经接近历史低点，由此被抹去的外国资产比新兴经济体创造的资产还要多。
The vigour of emerging economies is good news for the world economy: for its growth, it has much less need of a strong America.The bad news for America is that this, in turn, may mean that the world also has less need of the dollar.新兴经济体的活力对世界经济而言是个好消息：它的增长，可以更少地依靠强劲的美国经济。对美国而言，这种改变却是个坏消息，因为这意味世界对美元的需求也减少了。
第四篇：经济学人1
经济学人》杂志经典文章双语精读之二撤退的征兆(202_-12-25 19:21:07)
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标签：分类： 考研英语
美国
房产升值
财富效应
房价
杂谈
Most new borrowing during America's housing boom was for spending
由于房屋升值所带来的抵押借贷资金,多数被用于消费
HOW big an influence on spending is housing wealth? Hopes for a consumer revival in countries where house prices have slumped rest, in part, on the answer.A purist view is that the value of homes has no “wealth effect” on consumption.An increase in house prices only raises the future cost of shelter.Those about to trade down or sell out receive a windfall, but first-time buyers and those hoping to buy a bigger home are worse off.The overall effect on wealth is a wash.But even if that is correct, house-price increases may still have an impact as they create housing collateral for consumers who could not otherwise borrow.A study* by Atif Mian and Amir Sufi of the University of Chicago's Booth School of Business pins down the size of this effect, using the credit records of almost 70,000 American borrowers.房产价格对于消费支出的影响有多大?人们对于这个国家消费复苏的期待在一定程度上就寄希望于这个问题的答案,虽然房价已经遭受重创.一种最纯粹的观点认为,房产价值对于消费已经失去了”财富效应”.房价的升高只是提高了未来居住的成本.那些投资于房产的人们借此发了一笔横财,而初次购房者以及二次换购者的”大房子梦想”却打了水漂.总的来说,”财富效应”微乎其微.但即使那个观点是正确的,房价的提升依然有一定的作用,那就是对于那些之前无力贷款的人来说,房价的提升可以为他们进行更高额度的贷款担保.由芝加哥大学布
斯商学院的Atif Mian和Amir Sufi研究衡量了财富效应的程度,那是通过70000名美国借款者的信用记录得出的结论.It could be that an unseen influence, such as greater optimism about future earnings, pushed up both house prices and debt.So the authors use their granular data to first establish a link between the two, which is apparent in the aggregate figures up to 202_(see chart).They found that house prices and household debt increased most where the supply of new housing was limitedwhere homes can easily be built to meet demand and prices did not rise-debt barely rose either.This suggests that house-price rises led to more borrowing.这会是一种无形的影响,就像对于未来收入的乐观情绪一样,既推高了房价,也提升了负债程度.所以研究者利用散点图首先建立了这两个因素之间的线性关系,范围是202_年之前的所有数据.他们发现房价和家庭负债在新屋供应量有限的地区增加最快-那些被山岗,河流或者大洋所包围的地区.而在城市里,房屋的供应却非常有弹性–新房子可以很容易得被建造以满足需求,并且房价并不升高,同时负债也并不升高.这显示出是房价的上升导致了更多的借债.How much of this was simply down to new buyers needing bigger home loans? By limiting their sample to those who were already homeowners in 1997, before the boom in housing and credit, the authors were able to measure how much of the rise in debt was the result of cashing in on higher home values.They reckon almost 60% of increased debt between 202_ and 202_ came from this source.Put another way, every $1 increase in home values led to a rise of 25-30 cents in borrowing.That is far bigger than some long-standing estimates of the wealth effect from rising asset values, which are in the 3-5 cent range(though these include the response of renters, too).这一现象如何解释新屋购买者需要更多的房屋抵押贷款呢?通过将研究对象的范围限制到那些1997年就已经买了房子的人,在房价和信贷大幅发展之前,研究者可以测算出债务的增长和房价涨幅之间的定量关系.他们估计在202_年到202_年中,债务增长的60%来源于房屋增值.从另一个角度来说,房价每上升1美元,负债就增加大约25-30美分.这远比之前很长时间以来估计的3%-5%超出许多(虽然这也都包括了借款人的利息)
Money released from housing equity was not funnelled into other forms of saving.Homeowners in cities where house prices rose quickly were less, rather than more, likely to invest in other properties.Funds raised against rising home equity were not used to pay down other debts.And fewer households invested in financial assets, such as shares and bonds, when
house prices were rising.All this suggests that almost all of the $1.45 trillion the authors estimate was borrowed against rising home equity was used for spending.由房产价值提升所带来的财富并未转化为其他形式的积蓄.在房价上涨更快的城市,房屋所有者更少得投资于其他资产,而不是更多.由于房产升值所增加的储蓄并未用来支付其他债务.而且在房价上升时很少有人投资于金融资产,比如股票和债券.这些都指向一个结果,根据研究者估计,由房产升值所带来的大约1450亿美元被用于消费.Digging deeper into their data, the two Chicago economists discovered that the pattern of home-equity withdrawal was far from uniform.The young were keener to cash out than the old.That is at odds with the life-cycle theory of consumption, which says that the young amass wealth so that they can spend it in old age.Borrowing by the top quartile of homeowners ranked by their creditworthiness scarcely rose in response to rising house prices.That is evidence against a pure wealth effect, says Mr Sufi.The most eager borrowers were those with the lowest credit ratings and whose credit-card borrowing was closest to the agreed limit.That sits well with a model of willing but frustrated consumers given access to credit through the rising value of their homes.通过更深一步的数据分析,这两位芝加哥的经济学家发现将房产升值变现的渠道也大不相同.相比于老年人,年轻人更倾向于持有现金.这反倒和生命周期消费理论相矛盾,那种理论认为年轻人会积蓄大量的财富以供晚年享用.一个仅依靠信誉进行排名的借款人榜单中,前四分之一的借款人因为房产价值的提升而增加了债务.Mr Sufi认为这是一个能够体现财富效应的证据.而那些最渴望借款的人一般是那些信用等级较低或者借款额已经接近限额的那些客户.这和那个模型非常契合,那就是通过房产升值从而能够提升信用等级的客户可以满足先前强烈但是受压抑的消费欲望.It also fits a more worrying interpretation: that many of the keenest borrowers were myopic or had problems with self-control.More than a third of new defaults in 202_-08 were because of home-equity-based borrowing.Default rates for low credit-quality homeowners rose by more than 12 percentage points in places where housing was scarcest and prices had risen most.In “elastic” cities, by contrast, the increase was less than four percentage points.This suggests huge over-borrowing.Prospects for a sustained recovery look dim if households that are most inclined to spend are mired in negative equity.这也符合一个令人忧虑的解释:那些最渴望借款的人通常很短视或者缺乏自控力.在06-08年间,有三分之一的还款拖欠是由于房屋抵押贷款.在那些房屋稀缺,房价大幅上涨的地区,低信用等级的客户违约率已经上升了超过12%.而在市场充满弹性的城市中恰恰相反,只上升了不到4个百分点.这显示出了大量的过度借
贷.如果那些负资产的家庭还是倾向于消费的话,那么持续性经济复苏的前景依然是一片黯淡.
第五篇：经济学人4.09
Cola wars, continued
可乐之战，胜负未定
Good for you, not for shareholders
肥了顾客，瘦了股东
As Pepsi struggles to regain market share, IndraNooyi’s job is on the line
百事争取重新收复失去的市场份额，英德拉努伊总裁之位岌岌可危
IN OCTOBER 1996 the cover of Fortunemagazine showed Roger Enrico, then the chief executive of PepsiCo, trapped in a Coke bottle under the headline “How Coke is kicking Pepsi’s can”.Ten years later, just after Pepsi had surpassed Coca-Cola in market capitalisation for the first time in their 108-year rivalry, the same magazine ran another big story on the cola giants.It admitted that it was wrong to have declared Pepsi defeated and lauded it as one of America’s best-run companies.1996年10月的财富杂志封面上有这样一幅插图：百事当时的CEO罗杰恩里克陷入可口可乐的可乐瓶中，插图上面写着这样一句标题：“可口可乐怎么抢走了百事的生意”。十年后，百事可乐市值第一次超过了其百年的竞争对手，同样的杂志报道了关于这两个可乐巨头的一件大新闻。该杂志承认以前认为百事被击败是错误的，并且称赞百事公司是美国运营最好的公司之一。
Fast forward another six years and Coke is again kicking Pepsi’s can.Both are losing cola drinkers in America as consumers switch from fizzy, sugary drinks to healthier water, tea, juices and sports drinks.But whereas Coca-Cola has lost on average 2% a year in like-for-like volume of fizzy drinks in America since 202_, Pepsi has lost 3%(see chart), according to Sanford C.Bernstein, an investment bank.That means its American drinks business has shrunk by about 20%.Coke’s Simply juices and its lower-priced Minute Maid are taking share from the fruity concoctions of Pepsi’s Tropicana.And Coke’s sports drink, Powerade, is knocking spots off Gatorade, Pepsi’s brew for athletes.光阴飞逝，六年过去了，可口可乐又抢走了百事的生意。由于消费者不再喜欢含糖碳酸饮料，偏好更加健康的水，茶，果汁和运动饮料，可口可乐和百事正在失去越来越多的顾客。但是，202_年以来，可口可乐每年碳酸饮料的销量同比降低2%，而百事每年降低 3%，以上资料来自一家名为桑福德伯恩斯坦的投资银行。这意味着百事的美国饮料业务已经收缩了20%。可口可乐的名为“简适”的果汁饮料和低价饮料“美汁源”不断侵蚀百事果汁饮料“纯果乐”的市场份额。可口可乐的运动饮料“劲力果汁”轻松击败百事的运动饮料“佳得乐”。
Faced with mounting investor dissatisfaction about Pepsi’s stagnant share price, the food-and-drinks giant recently embarked on an effort to relaunch the company.On February 9th the group announced that it was cutting 8,700 jobs, or 3% of its workforce.Having underinvested
in its flagship beverage brands for years, it is increasing investment in marketing and advertising by $500m-600m.It has some catching-up to do: at the end of 202_ Pepsi spent 3.3% of sales on advertising compared with 8.3% of sales at Coca-Cola, according to Judy Hong, who follows drinks makers for Goldman Sachs.由于投资者对百事停滞不升的股价深感不满，这个食品饮料巨头最近着手进行重整。2月9日百事宣布裁员，共裁掉8700个岗位，占其职工总数的3%。由于多年来对其旗舰饮料品牌投资不足，百事正增加5-6亿美元的投资用于营销和广告。要想奋起直追，百事需要更多努力：根据高盛投资的朱迪洪多年来对饮料厂家的调查，202_年末百事将其销售额的3.3%用于广告支出，与之相比可口可乐用掉 8.3%的销售额。
Pepsi is also pinning its hope on the launch across America on March 26th of Pepsi Next, a new soda sweetened with both high-fructose syrup and artificial sweeteners which has 60% less sugar than classic Pepsi.Angelique Krembs of Pepsi says the new drink is aimed at consumers who are keen to imbibe less sugar with their cola but dislike the taste of diet drinks.She splits this mostly male group in two: “dualists”, who switch between regular and diet(and sometimes mix the two), and “resistants”, who never touch either.百事还将希望寄托3月26日在其新饮料Pepsi Next的全美发布上，这是一种甜甜的碳酸饮料，含有更多的果糖浆和人造甜味剂，因为有了人造甜味剂，这种饮料含糖量比传统百事要低60%。百事公司的安吉利可克莱姆布表示新饮料的客户定位是那些希望自己的可乐含糖量低，但是又不喜欢低糖饮料口感的人。她将这个主要是男性的客户群体分成了两部分：第一个“兼爱者”，即能喝传统碳酸饮料又能喝低糖饮料的顾客；另一个是“兼恶者”，两种饮料都不喜欢的人。
Will Pepsi’s reset be enough to win over investors? Pepsi Next is piding opinions.“We have seen this movie before,” says Mark Swartzberg, a drinks analyst at StifelNicolaus, a bank.In 202_ Pepsi launched Pepsi Edge, a mid-calorie soda, which Coca-Cola matched with a new mid-calorie brew called C2.Both disappeared from the shelves after a few years.百事的重整活动能否成功以赢得投资者呢？对于百事的新饮料Pepsi Next，各方的看法不一。史帝弗尼可拉斯银行的饮料分析家马克瓦茨伯格表示，“我们对这种桥段早已不陌生”。202_年百事推出新产品低卡路里汽水“Pepsi Edge”，可口可乐针锋相对，推出自己的低卡饮料C2。几年后，这两种饮料都退出市场。
Pepsi’s boss, IndraNooyi, is seeking to revive the company’s core business while continuing her ambitious drive to transform the company into a maker of healthier drinks and snacks, and a better corporate citizen.In the past few years MsNooyi has spent disproportionate time and effort on promoting products that Pepsi calls “good for you”(oatmeal, fruit juices and sports drinks), which make up about 20% of its sales.She is aiming nearly to triple the revenue of nutritious products, to $30 billion, by 202_.百事的总裁英德拉?努伊正试图重振公司的核心产业，同时继续实现自己的野心——将公司转变成一个健康饮料和健康快餐的倡导者，转变成更负责任的企业公民。过去几年来，努伊
将不成比例的时间和精力花费在促销百事所津津乐道的健康饮食上（燕麦片，果汁和运动饮料），这些产品占其销售额的20%。她的目标是到202_年，这类健康产品的营业收入要提高到300亿美元，接近现在的三倍。
MsNooyi has also devoted resources to cultivating a corporate image focused on global social responsibility.In 202_ Pepsi skipped soda ads at the Super Bowl, launching instead a $20m online competition for the nomination of worthy causes that Pepsi might finance.The Refresh Project succeeded in gathering 80m online votes and helped numerous homeless shelters and orphanages.But it did not sell much soda, which is why Pepsi went back to its usual ads at the 202_ Super Bowl.努伊还投入大量资源，通过增强全球社会责任感树立百事可乐良好的公众形象。202_年，百事撤掉超级碗的百事可乐广告，发起一项公益事业网上投票，百事将为这类事业花费2千万美元。这个名为“焕新”的项目共征得8千万网上投票，帮助建立了无数的无家可归者收容所和孤儿院。但这个项目并没有帮助百事卖出更多的汽水，这也是202_年百事重新在超级碗投放广告的原因。
It will take time for the revised strategy to bear fruit, as it did for Coca-Cola when it reset its course in the late 2000s after a series of management and marketing mishaps.Coke’s bosses now feel they are on the right track with its offering of fizzy drinks, vitamin water, juice, coffee and tea.They think they are giving health-conscious customers sufficient choice.Of the 3,500 drinks Coke sells worldwide, more than 800 are zero-or low-calorie.这个改进后的战略若要奏效，恐怕须得假以时日。对此，可口可乐深有同感，在经历了一系列管理和市场上的灾祸之后，202_年末可口可乐重组了自己的业务。可口可乐的管理层认为可口可乐的主业就是提供碳酸类饮料，维他命水，果汁，咖啡和茶，在这方面他们已经步入正轨。他们觉得他们给了关注健康的顾客足够多的选择。在可口可乐全球销售的3500中饮料中，有超过800种是无卡路里或者低卡路里饮料。
If MsNooyi’srelaunch does not work Pepsi may get a new chief executive.The company seems to be preparing for a possible change at the top.On March 12th it revamped its management structure, poaching back Brian Cornell-a former Pepsi man who went on to run the Sam’s Club pision of Walmart-to head Pepsi’s Americas Foods snacks pision.It put John Compton, the current head of Americas Foods, in charge of all the company’s global groups, making him an heir apparent in the newly created role of president.Another possible crown prince is ZeinAbdalla, boss of Pepsi’s European business.如果努伊的重整计划不能奏效的话，百事可能得需要一个新的CEO。百事似乎正准备企业高层的人事变动。3月12日百事重置了公司的管理结构，挖回了布莱恩康奈尔，让他负责百事美国快餐分部。康奈尔曾是百事高管，后来投奔沃尔玛，担任山姆俱乐部负责人。让原先负责美国快餐部门的约翰康普顿负责管理公司在全球的子公司，这让他成为董事长的首选继任者，另一个可能的接班人是阿卜杜拉，他是百事欧洲业务的话事人。
MsNooyi may leave before she is pushed out.She is one of the contenders for the top job at the
World Bank.Though she says she loves her job, she has talked in the past of her desire to spend some of her career in public service.And the World Bank may suit her zeal to do good on a global scale rather more comfortably than the maker of popular but largely fatty, salty and sugary foodstuffs.努伊也许不会等到被赶下台，而会自己选择主动离开。她是世界银行行长职位的竞争者之一。尽管她称自己热爱自己的工作，但她曾经提到希望能将自己一部分职业生涯用在公共服务事业上。世界银行能为她在全球范围内热情施展才华提供用武之地，这个工作要比生产虽受大众欢迎，但脂多盐多糖多食品的工作也轻松得多。
